Aston Villa Defy Gravity Once More as Winning Run Rolls On at Chelsea

It simply cannot continue. The logic defies rational sense for it to persist. Yet, persist it does.

A Record-Chasing Triumph Defying Expectations

The Claret and Blue army arrived at Saturday's top-flight clash at Chelsea looking to equal a club record of 11 consecutive wins, matching runs set in 1897 and 1914. For the opening hour, achieving it seemed improbable, as Chelsea dominated proceedings, took the lead, and might have added to their advantage. However, Chelsea are vulnerability when ahead, particularly at home, while Villa now possess a remarkable knack of securing wins on the road from losing positions.

First, Ollie Watkins leveled the scores, the ball cannoning in off his shin and the post following his first effort was saved by the goalkeeper. Later on, he secured the decisive goal with a precise header. This marked just his fourth and fifth league goals of the campaign. The forward might believe a bit of luck was due, and it's undeniable the first goal had a large slice of good fortune. Currently, however, fortune seems to be favoring Villa.

The Statistics Of an Implausible Run

The last nine of these eleven straight wins were by a solitary goal. They have managed a clean sheet in only one of those games. Their expected goals (xG) have been superior in just six of those encounters, and in two of those, the advantage was 0.2 or less. Their last five away Premier League victories have all come from behind. This formula should not, but pundits have been claiming that for weeks, and Villa continue winning. The central question is whether their results will eventually match their performances or if their level of play can improve to justify the points haul.

This should not be possible, but everyone has been saying that for weeks and Villa keep on winning.

A Defining Characteristic: Resilience

Fighting back is not just a trait of this season. Over the past three seasons, no side has won more points when trailing than Villa's 54; 18 of those have been secured this term, 50% more than the second-placed team, Sunderland. This season, Villa substitutes have contributed 9 goals. Two key observations can be made about Villa under their manager.

  • First, they possess a profound confidence that means no game ever feels beyond them. This is, in part, self-perpetuating: the more they come from behind, the more they believe they can do it once more.
  • Secondly, Emery has proven very adept at influencing games with his use of the bench.

A Masterful Change

While Chelsea had the better of the xG battle 2.1 to 1.4, Villa were dominant from the moment, just before the hour mark, when Emery made a triple substitution. Ollie Watkins replaced Donyell Malen, who had found it difficult with few chances. Immediately, the ball was held up better, and Watkins's runs behind the defensive line caused problems. Onana and Jadon Sancho also came on, strengthening the midfield and adding the width they had lacked earlier.

The Blues registered 10 shots to Villa's none before the substitutions; following them, Villa had eleven opportunities to Chelsea's four. By the end, Villa were commanding and could easily have won by a greater margin. Not for the first time, opposing manager Maresca struggled to react as the game turned against him; the sense remains that he is better at devising a game plan with time to prepare than making adjustments in the moment.

Moment of Magic

Villa have also developed a happy habit of players producing moments of sensational quality to turn games. Rogers has scored crucial goals at Leeds, West Ham, and against Manchester United. The image of him shifting the ball onto his favored foot and curling a finish into the top corner has become a seasonal leitmotif. It was Malen who changed the game from the bench at Leeds. The striker changed the game at Stamford Bridge. The performances of players such as Konsa and Lindelof on Saturday were key. Right now, it's not always the entire team playing flawlessly, but enough players within it stepping up to secure the victories.

The Road Ahead

Will they be able to keep going? They now sit three points behind the league leaders, and as the season nears its midway point, they have to be considered as in the championship conversation, certainly more so than teams like Chelsea or reigning title holders Liverpool. Tuesday's away fixture at Arsenal will be a major examination of that status. Villa defeated Arsenal earlier this month, a match in which they not only won the xG but registered an xG 40% higher than any other side has achieved against Arsenal in the league this season.

The Gunners have assembled their own sequence of narrow victories, winning 3 in a row without ever being wholly convincing. The upcoming clash will be a test for both sides – and if Villa win a twelfth game in a row, it would become almost impossible to dismiss their title credentials.

John Harris
John Harris

A passionate writer and life coach dedicated to helping others unlock their full potential through mindful practices and actionable advice.

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