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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It often acts as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the largest turnaround is handed the award. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or just the biggest upset.

But the current competition is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions declining and longtime also-rans ascending in unison. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this wild and fun year, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet this is not a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. But he falls just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching mix of youth and experience, he bet on newbies. Starting with the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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